Can the Greenland White-fronted Goose be saved?

A new article in British Birds (British Birds 118 • September 2025 • 431–445) considers the causes and options for reversal of the latest population decline in the Greenland White-fronted Goose.

Greenland White-fronted Geese Anser albifrons flavirostris breed in west Greenland, stage during spring and autumn in Iceland, and winter in Ireland and Great Britain. Following declines in wintering numbers from the 1950s to the late 1970s, conservation lobbying led to protection from previously unsustainable levels of hunting in Britain and Ireland from winter 1982/83. Numbers rose from 16,540 recorded in the first coordinated census in spring 1983 to a peak of 35,570 in spring 1999 – seemingly a conservation success story. Since then, however, the population has declined to 15,020 in spring 2024. The most plausible current hypothesis to explain this recent decline is that climate-change-driven cooling of spring and early summer temperatures in west Greenland has severely suppressed reproductive success. Young birds have made up less than 5% of flocks across much of the wintering population counted in recent years – well below the level required to offset annual mortality (c. 15–17%) – explaining the continuing decline despite the conservation measures already in place. Climate mitigation or adaptation measures are unlikely to reduce these impacts in the short term. In the meantime, it is vital to minimise avoidable sources of human-induced mortality (e.g. illegal and accidental shooting in Iceland), reduce disturbance and ensure optimal feeding conditions, enabling birds to depart staging and wintering sites in the best possible condition for migration and breeding. This case highlights the vulnerability of migratory species that rely on a seasonal chain of food resources, the continuity of which is increasingly disrupted by extreme weather events and cascading ecosystem impacts as a result of climate change. It underlines the need for innovative approaches to address these challenges, particularly since further management on the wintering grounds alone is unlikely to reverse declines driven by deteriorating conditions in the breeding range.